EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we have the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. We already got the PMIs for Australia and Japan and although they showed resilience, they highlighted that the war in the Middle East is the key factor dampening optimism, with economic performance unlikely to be sustained unless uncertainty is reduced and supply chains stabilise. This war is affecting everyone, so we should see similar responses in the other PMIs.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims data and the Flash US PMIs. Initial Claims are expected at 210K vs 207K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1816K vs 1818K prior. The labour market data has been very good lately which isn’t justifying any kind of rate cut the market has been pricing in. On the contrary, if the war ends soon, we might see even stronger economic activity going forward which could bring rate hikes back on the table.
The US Flash PMIs are expected to pretty much mirror the sentiment of the others. The last release showed a combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, and that might not have changed much.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
15:00 GMT/11:00 ET – ECB’s Nagel (neutral – voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.