Prior was 93.1 (revised to 90.6)
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index nudged up 0.6 points to 91.2 in June, but only because of a big downward revision to the May reading.
Expectations did the heavy lifting, jumping 3.0 points to 74.4 on better readings for business conditions and incomes. The driver is obvious: oil prices have rolled over since the US-Iran ceasefire held through the survey window, and that’s taken the edge off inflation fears. Households see higher stock prices a year out and fewer of them expect rate hikes.
The Present Situation index fell 3.0 points to 116.4, and the labor market read is the one to circle. Consumers calling jobs “hard to get” rose to 22.5% — the highest since January 2021. The labor differential, plentiful minus hard-to-get, collapsed 2.6 points to just +2.4%. That’s the kind of soft underbelly that shows up in the confidence data before it shows up in payrolls. Worth watching into the next NFP.
It’s also a big contrast to today’s JOLTS report, which showed rising job openings.
The forward labor read was flat, so consumers aren’t bracing for a collapse — they’re just not seeing improvement. Recession expectations stayed low. Buying plans for autos and homes firmed on a six-month basis, and travel intentions tilted toward international over domestic.
Net-net: this is a consumer leaning on cheaper energy and a calmer Middle East to feel better about tomorrow while quietly acknowledging the job market got harder today. For the Fed, the labor softening is the more important tell. Confidence surveys are noisy and haven’t been a useful economic indicator for awhile.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.