What’s expected:
Consensus estimate +65K (range +50K to +125K)
September +29K
August +133K
July -10K
Private consensus estimate +64K
Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.2% vs 4.2% prior
Participation rate 61.8% prior
Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.6%
Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +2.9% y/y vs +3.0% prior
Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% prior
Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior
October jobs so far:
ADP employment report +86K vs +67K expected and +86K prior
ISM services employment 51.4 vs 50.1 prior
ISM manufacturing employment 52.4 vs 52.0 exp and 52.7 prior
Challenger Job Cuts 43,994 vs 43,281 prior
Philly employment +9.1 vs +11.8 prior
Empire employment +10.3 vs +10.6 prior
Initial jobless claims survey week 194K vs 196K last month
Revelio Labs +26K vs +68K prior
There is a positive skew in the numbers releaed so far, including ADP and both ISM reports. Yesterday’s report from Revelio Labs got some attention as a weak point.
The market pricing for a December rate hike is down to 73% in light of the equity market volatility and the big question remains: What will Trump do in the Iran war. That and the outlook for AI with Anthropic’s IPO upcoming are the key variables right now. S&P 500 futures are slightly higher but they were higher yesterday before the wheels fell off.
The US dollar is doing better on safe haven flows and a strong jobs report would add to the dollar bid and also get the market worrying about a scenario where the Fed has to hike even as the AI trade legs lower.
BMO notes that “41% of previous unemployment prints for October have been lower-than-expected, 22% have been higher-than-estimates, and 37% have matched the consensus,” while there is a modest negative skew versus expectations on the headline number.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.