Prediction markets are pointing to a Democratic sweep of Congress in today’s US midterm elections, with the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate rising sharply in recent weeks.
As of around 8 am ET on Tuesday, November 3, the latest prices from Kalshi and Polymarket show:
House control: Democrats 94–95%, Republicans 6–7%
Senate control: Democrats 78%, Republicans 23–24%
The Senate race has seen the biggest shift. Kalshi had Democratic control priced at 74% at midday Monday, up from 63% in early October and 44% in March.
Here are the latest approximate Kalshi prices for some of the key Senate races:
Kansas is the one that would be the big shocker. This is Mitch McConnell’s old seat, which he last won in 2020 by a margin of 57.76% to 38.23%. The odds flipped just in the past week.
I’m skeptical of that on but there have been some ghastly polls for Republicans lately. Of course, we’ve seen this playbook before with some pollsters calling the end of Trumpism on the eve of the 2024 election only for him to win big.
Other notable races include North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is priced at 97%, and Georgia, where Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is at 96%.
Republicans currently hold a 53–47 advantage in the Senate, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure outright control. As a crosscheck, UK bookmakers have about the same 75-78% odds of Democrats controlling the Senate.
The House market is considerably more one-sided, with Democrats trading near 95% to regain control.
Nate Silver’s model gives Democrats 82% for the Senate and 96% for the House. Poliwave has Democrats at 85% for the Senate.
The first meaningful clues should arrive around 7:15–8:00 pm ET tonight, with a much clearer picture by 9–10 pm. The earliest races to watch are in Kentucky, Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio.
Focus on two things: the Democratic margin relative to the 2024 presidential electionin early-reporting House districts, and whether Republicans are outperforming or underperforming expectations in the Senate races.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.