It’s no longer early as US votes roll in.
There is a highly statistically significant number of districts reporting now and some of them reporting completely. The numbers are showing a 10-35 point swing towards Democrats. If even the bottom of that holds, it’s a huge swing towards Democrats.
For illustration, betting odds now have Democrats winning the Texas Governorship and Senate seat, with Talarico beating Paxton at 95%. In the closely-watched early numbers in KY-06 and IN-05 the numbers are unmistakable and show Democrats upsetting Republicans in both. Florida hasn’t been as much of a landslide but it has shown a shift to Democrats of around 10 points from 2024.
Another huge upset brewing is in South Carolina, where Lindsay Graham’s sister was running for his seat after his death. Odds now have her narrowly losing the seat, which would hand it to Democrats for the next 6 years.
On Kalshi, Democrat control of the Senate is now at 96.8%.
It seems that all that’s left to do is tally the margin of victory.
In terms of markets, I would be careful with tech because anti data-centers was a strong campaign message and anti-AI in general. The tech right got into bed with Trump and now there might be a price to pay. That’s particularly notable in Texas, where there are a huge amount of data centers planned. Shares of Tesla are down 3% overnight and I think that’s an interesting spot to watch if the Democrat wins the Governorship.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.