RBNZ Governor Breman says inflation may have already peakedIran vows crushing response as CENTCOM says US hit over 80 targetsNZD has jumped after the RBNZ rate hike and indication that further rate risers are aheadRBNZ lifts OCR to 2.50% and flags more hikes as inflation risks lingerRBNZ 25bp rate hike, as widely expectedPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8077 (vs. estimate at 6.8018)RBA’s Hunter says board will act as needed to return inflation to targetSouth Korean shares climb out of opening hole, are back positive. Nikkei, ES and NQ all upOngoing US attacks on Iranian targets, Khormuj missile site, Qeshm Island, Kharg IslandICYMI – China buys 26 million barrels of Gulf crude as Saudi discount deepensGermany moves to refill diesel reserves and build new gas stockpileUS strikes on Iran to continue for hours as Hormuz traffic haltedWarnings that ceasefire in danger unless Iran stops blocking Strait of HormuzUS equites have reopened lower as US military strikes Iran againBOJ dissenter Asada sets bar for supporting next rate hike, wants demand-driven inflationUS military confirm “have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran”Reports of explosions on Iran’s coast, Strait of HormuzICYMI – Fed’s Williams turns more upbeat on inflation as oil prices retreatOil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw smaller than expectedinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Oil climbs as Trump reimposes sanctions on Iran
Oil jumps, dollar bid as US-Iran truce teeters; RBNZ delivers first hike in three years
US oil prices jumped nearly 3% in early Wednesday trade, extending Tuesday’s gains, after fresh US strikes on Iran hit air defense, radar, missile and drone sites plus port facilitiesStrikes followed Iranian attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a US move to revoke Iran’s oil sales licence; a US official called the response “punishment, not proportional” and said it would continueIran reportedly ordered its IRGC Navy to close the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic, unconfirmed officially, and vowed “decisive actions” in response, with an escalation ladder now expectedDollar index hit its highest level since 2 July on safe haven demand, with global yields climbing on renewed inflation concernRBNZ delivered its first rate hike in three years, lifting the OCR 25bp and flagging further increases likely, though timing uncertain; NZD firmed on the moveAsia equities mixed: Nikkei soft, KOSPI swung from a 2.5%+ opening loss to a 1% gain before fading, Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng the standouts, with Hang Seng helped by strong IPO debuts including Momenta GlobalUS equity futures opened on the backfoot but firmed to flat/modestly higher as KOSPI reversedUS Commerce Department reportedly lifted export restrictions on OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 model
Markets opened the session digesting a fast-moving escalation between the US and Iran, with oil doing most of the talking. Crude extended its recent run higher, adding almost 3% early Wednesday as traders absorbed confirmation that Washington had launched a fresh, larger wave of strikes against Iranian military and related infrastructure. The action came in direct response to Iranian attacks on three commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and was compounded by the Trump administration’s decision to revoke Iran’s licence to sell oil, a financial squeeze that preceded the kinetic one. A US official framed the strikes explicitly as punitive rather than proportional, signalling Washington intends to keep the pressure on rather than settle for a single retaliatory round.
Iran’s response so far has been mainly rhetorical but pointed. Tehran said the reinstated oil sanctions themselves amount to a breach of the memorandum that ended the earlier war, and unconfirmed reports suggest its navy has been told to shut the strait to all traffic, a step that would mark a serious escalation if confirmed. Iran has also promised further action to protect its interests, leaving markets bracing for the next rung on what increasingly looks like a mutual escalation ladder rather than an isolated exchange. Iran attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain followed.
The dollar caught a safe haven bid as a result, trading at its best level since 2 July against a basket of peers, while yields pushed higher globally on reawakened inflation concern tied to the energy shock. Against that backdrop, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered its first OCR hike in three years, lifting rates by 25 basis points and flagging that more tightening is likely, even as it stressed the timing remains highly uncertain. The kiwi firmed in response.
Equity markets across Asia told a choppier story. The Nikkei opened weak and briefly touched flat before slipping back into the red, while the KOSPI swung wildly, opening down more than 2.5% before fully reversing to gains of as much as 1%, though that upside proved short-lived. Shanghai and Hong Kong were the session’s bright spots, with the Hang Seng outperforming on a run of new listings, headlined by Momenta Global’s debut, which traded as much as 5% above its issue price before giving back the gain. US equity futures mirrored the KOSPI’s mood swing, opening soft before firming to flat or modestly higher.
Away from the geopolitical and monetary headlines, the US Commerce Department was reported to have lifted export restrictions on OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 model, a smaller story for now but one worth watching given the broader tech and AI investment threads running through the global growth outlook.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.