Trump: My deal will be better than JCPOATrump: I’m winning the war by a lotTrump says ceasefire will end Wednesday, won’t open Strait until deal is signedWarsh to tell Congress he’s committed to ensuring monetary policy is strictly independentCanada’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey: sentiment bounces back, then the Middle East happenedUS-Iran talks are planned for Wednesday – reportIran positively reviewing participation in peace talks, no final decision taken – reportIran reportedly willing to participate in second round of talks this weekCanada March CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.6% expected
Markets:
Gold down $15 to $4813US 10-year yields up 1.2 bps to 4.256%WTI crude oil up $4.85 to $86.68CHF leads, JPY lagsS&P 500 down 0.2%
The only thing you can say about today’s US session was that the situation in Iran didn’t get worse.
The market was looking for some answers around a few questions and I’m not sure there was any progress. The main issues are:
Is Iran actually attending negotiations? (this seems to be drifting towards ‘yes’ but they’re grandstanding, maybe for the domestic audience.Is JD Vance going for the US? (Trump said he was already in the air but that turned out to be untrue but it looks like he’s going on Tuesday)Will there be a deal? (Trump fired off several tweetstorms with all kinds of rhetoric but he did hint that the deal was on track — and better than the JCPOA)Will Hormuz open before talks? (This seems to be a sticking point at the moment and if both sides halted their blockade before the talks, that would be a positive sign)
So we continue to wait but the market wasn’t particularly bothered outside of near-dated oil, which recouped about half of Friday’s drop.
On Tuesday we get US retail sales and the confirmation hearing for Warsh so that should be a welcome distraction but Iran is going to continue to dominate until we get a deal.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.