The price of crude oil is moving higher and stocks are moving lower on reports of an American attack on Iran. There are sounds of explosions heard in Chabahar and Bandar Abbas according to local reports.
A rundown of the most recent tensions shows:
Direct military exchanges resumed: The U.S. struck Iran’s Larak Island on Sunday, August 30. Iran responded with missile attacks against two U.S. air bases in Jordan—the first direct exchanges since late July. Trump warned of another response, although he said the situation did not represent a return to full-scale war.
Two tankers carrying Saudi crude were attacked Monday: Shipping intelligence firms reported that the Sidr and Senegal Prosperity were struck by unidentified projectiles near Oman while leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Each carried roughly 2 million barrels. Responsibility has not been established; crews were reported safe.
Iran threatened wider disruption to Gulf oil exports: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that if Iran cannot export its oil, other Gulf exporters would also be prevented from doing so. That raises the risk of the confrontation spreading further into commercial shipping.
Washington is increasing economic pressure: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said bank sanctions were likely this week and next. The U.S. is also considering measures against airline leasing companies and businesses linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
A diplomatic opening remains: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday that Tehran would return to the June ceasefire commitments if Washington does the same. However, that remains a conditional offer, rather than a new agreement
The price of crude oil has moved to a high of $89.85. The current price is trading at $89.72. That’s up close to $4 on the day. The low price was at $86.70.
US stocks have dipped with the NASDAQ index now down to hundred 6 points or 0.79% at 26167. It is still of its lows at 25995.53. The NASDAQ 100 is down 328 points or -1.11% at 29127. That to is off it low at 28992.25
Meanwhile, a US official says the next phase of talks on Venezuela’s transition is expected to resume in the middle of the month, alongside a continued push for US private-sector investment. Chevron is expected to announce an expansion of its operations in Venezuela, while Energy Secretary Wright is reportedly heading there tonight for agreement signings tomorrow.
For the Trump administration, the message is that additional Venezuelan supply could help ease the pressure from higher oil prices tied to the war in Iran. However, US consumers remain exposed to those increases regardless of where their oil comes from. Oil is priced in a global market, so disruptions in the Middle East can still translate into higher prices at American gas stations.
Higher crude prices have been benefitting US domesic producers like Chevron, giving the administration an opening to press for investment in countries like Venezuela. Chevron, meanwhile can say they will invest, but how much is an open question. However, Venezuela is no quick fix. Much of its crude is heavy or extra-heavy, requiring specialized handling and refining. Expanding production and restoring infrastructure will take substantial investment and time.
The administration is likely pushing Chevron and other US producers to commit capital, but those companies still need confidence that the economics—and the political conditions—justify the investment (which can change overnight – they are still private companies). Nevertheless, “announcements” could help Trump signal that he is addressing energy costs while the US bombs Iran. However, delivering enough additional oil to meaningfully lower prices is a longer-term challenge.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.