Comments from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem cross the wires:
If new US tariffs remain in place, Q4 growth could be roughly halved to below 1%
If oil prices stay near $100 a barrel, we’d expect inflation to edge up in coming months
Fuel prices have risen more than we’d normally expect, reflecting damage to global refining capacity
Recent gas prices have been more consistent with an oil price almost $40 higher than where it has been
So far we haven’t seen evidence that higher oil prices are spreading to other goods and services
We don’t want to raise rates and restrain growth if inflationary pressures are contained
Bank of Canada says new US tariffs could slash fourth-quarter growth
When it comes to rate decisions, we need to look beyond the initial shock of higher oil prices
Nor do we want to be too slow to respond if inflationary pressures are becoming more persistent
There is growing evidence that many Canadian businesses have started to adapt to US tariffs
Bank expects that growth in labor force will be close to zero over the next few years
Analysis: Macklem is highlighting the difficult balance facing the Bank of Canada. Tariffs could significantly weaken economic growth, while higher oil and fuel prices could push inflation higher in the coming months. That creates competing risks for monetary policy.
For now, the message is cautiously neutral. The Bank does not want to raise rates in response to a temporary oil-price shock, particularly with growth already under pressure. However, policymakers will be watching closely for evidence that higher energy costs are spreading into other goods and services. If those second-round inflation pressures begin to appear, the Bank may have to respond despite the weaker growth outlook.
The USDCAD did hold support in the NA session within a swing area between 1.3989 and 1.4003. That has helped to push the price back toward the highs for the day at 1.4023. Move above that level adn traders would look toward the 61.8% target at 1.40502.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.