EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the French trade balance and the Italian PPI report. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB or the market, so the reaction will be muted.
The market focus remains solely on the US-Iran war.
The sentiment in the markets is more positive after Trump told CBS yesterday that “the war could be over soon”. We got a taste of what should come when we get the real de-escalation as Trump’s words triggered a quick relief rally with stocks surging, oil selling off and the US dollar weakening.
Traders are now looking forward to the de-escalation, so the upside in the war premium should be limited.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data which hasn’t been a market moving report for a long time, and it’s unlikely to be so today.
As already mentioned, the focus is solely on the war because that’s going to influence the data in the future. The data we are getting now is all pre-war, and therefore old news.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.