However, the firm adds a caveat in saying that “if there is a benign outcome in US-EU trade talks, we will abandon our forecast of a July cut”.
Regardless, it’s still an interesting call. That especially after the ECB has sent quite a clear message on pausing through the summer at least. As things stand, markets are pricing in a ~90% probability of the ECB keeping rates unchanged for the 24 July policy decision.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.