Trump has normalized the idea of a 15 – 20% tariff.I’ve evolved on the idea of tariffs.Tariffs have not set off any inflationary mindsetChina has consistently cut prices for exports.I don’t believe tariffs are a taxThe Supreme Court need to be prudent about undoing Trump’s IEEPA tariffs. He is optimistic on Supreme Court tariff decision.IEEPA authority on tariffs have given the US bargaining room on trade.Fed chair has room to start discussion on policy but has one vote.No one understands Fed’s balance sheet function.The regional banks don’t necessarily represent their districts.Going to start advocating that Fed bank presidents should have lived in their districts for at least 3 years.Certain sectors of the economy have weekend, need interest rate cuts.I am very optimistic about economy next year, capex is up China is reaching correct cadence to complete its promised US soybean purchasesUS is a very good ally of China and Taiwan. Relationships are unchangedSingle biggest point of failure for global economy would be disruption of chips shipment from TaiwanGrowth in private credit is due to too tight regulation of banking system.Reliance on private credit would be procyclical in a downturn.Private investors in lending will always panic at the bottom.Trump Accounts are beginning of a shareholder economy
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.