Japan inflation data for July 2025, Tokyo area. This leads the national figures by around 3 weeks and is seen as a guide to what the national levels will be.
Tokyo CPI 2.9% y/y
expected 3.0%, prior 3.1%
CPI excluding-Fresh Food 2.9% (core CPI)
expected 3.0%, prior 3.1%
Ex-Fresh Food, Energy 3.1% (core-core CPI, this is the closest to the US measure of core inflation)
expected 3.1%, prior 3.1%
The Bank of Japan is still insisting that inflation is not yet at target, one of the reasons they are holding back from interest rate hikes. Another is the expected weakness in the Japanese economy from tariff impacts. Market expectations are around very late this year or into the early months of 2026 for the next Bank rate hike. Not everyone agrees:
UBS says US-Japan trade deal will be a drag on Japan’s economy, BoJ on hold to mid-2026
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.