OPEC+ will lift oil production again in October, though at a slower pace, as Saudi Arabia prioritises market share over price stability.
The group agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, down sharply from the larger hikes of recent months.
The decision marks the start of an early unwind of a 1.65 million bpd cut, following the complete reversal of a 2.5 million bpd reduction earlier this year. Analysts say the move is less about volume and more about signalling OPEC+’s intent to reclaim share, even if it risks lower prices. Saudi Arabia and the UAE remain the only members with capacity to add significant supply.
The announcement comes ahead of a seasonal demand slowdown, with crude already down about 15% this year to ~$65 a barrel, pressuring oil company profits and jobs despite support from Western sanctions on Russia and Iran.
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Bearish for oil prices near term, supportive for importers (EUR, JPY, INR); potential headwind for petrocurrencies (CAD, NOK, RUB) if crude stays weak. Having said all this, the decision has not come as too much of a surprise for markets.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.