Headlines:
Japanese yen falls as political uncertainty continues to weigh on sentimentEuropean indices dip at the open as investors wait on further trade developmentsSouth Korea Presidential Office: Ministers will meet US SecCom and USTR Greer on FridayWhat are the interest rates expectations for the major central banks?BoJ is said to see potential rate hike environment this yearECB’s Simkus: Inflation is expected to stay at 2% level in the medium termECB’s Kazaks: There’s no urgent need to adjust ratesECB’s Rehn: Will continue to base our decisions on a meeting by meeting assessmentECB’s Villeroy: The increases in US tariffs are not expected to cause inflation to riseECB forecasters see lower inflation for 2025 in latest surveyGermany July Ifo business climate index 88.6 vs 89.0 expectedFrance July consumer confidence 89 vs 88 expectedEurozone June M3 money supply +3.3% vs +3.7% y/y expectedUK June retail sales +0.9% vs +1.2% m/m expected
Markets:
USD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities mostly lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields up 0.4 bps to 4.411%Gold down 0.8% to $3,340.11WTI crude up 0.3% to $66.25Bitcoin down 1.7% to $116,753
As we look to wrap up the week, markets are seen putting up a more cautious mood in general. The dollar is battling back after some relative weakness from earlier in the week, as it pushes back against key near-term levels on the charts.
EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.1717, falling back under its 100-hour moving average of 1.1730. In somewhat similar vein, GBP/USD has also fallen past both its 100 and 200-hour moving averages and is down 0.5% to 1.3440 on the day.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to stay underpinned since overnight trading as political uncertainty in Tokyo continues to weigh on the yen. The pair moved up from 147.00 to 147.80 levels now and is also seen breaking above both its 100 and 200-hour moving averages.
The commodity currencies are also seen struggling with USD/CAD up 0.3% to 1.3675 and AUD/USD down 0.4% to 0.6560 currently. The latter is facing a setback after an attempted breakout above 0.6600 yesterday as it also falls back below its 100-hour moving average of 0.6565 at the moment.
All of that suggests that the dollar is seen pushing back and recovering back some near-term control in the tug of war this week.
In the equities space, European stocks got off to a rough start after Volkswagen disappointed on earnings and also lowered its full-year guidance, citing negative impact from Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, luxury brand LVMH also reported weaker quarterly sales and that saw French stocks dip at the open before paring those losses for now.
The DAX is still down 0.8% with other regional indices also modestly lower. Investors are seemingly also more cautious with there being no updates on a US-EU trade deal with the weekend approaching.
In other markets, gold is marked down once again as the fall continues upon the rejection of the highs around $3,430-35. The precious metal is down another 0.8% to $3,340 but is this time accompanied by declines in cryptocurrencies as well. Bitcoin fell by over 3% earlier on to two-week lows under $116,000 but dip buyers are seen holding the line ahead of US trading now.
As we look to next week, trade headlines remain the key thing to focus on but keep in mind that we’ll also be getting big tech earnings in the week ahead whilst having to navigate through month-end trading conditions. That is not to mention Trump’s 1 August deadline falling on the same day as the US jobs report. It’s going to be a fun one.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.