Washington initiated outreach with Iran but nothing reached a level of negotiations – CNNUS-led group waiting for response from Iran for peace talks on Thursday – reportUS Richmond Fed composite index 0 vs -10 expectedUS March S&P Global flash services PMI 51.1 vs 51.5 expectedSNB Chairman: We are prepared to introduce negative rates but the hurdle is highThe U.S. Treasury sold $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.936%Bank of England’s Pill: Stands ready to act against inflationary pressuresUS fourth quarter unit labor costs +4.4% vs +3.5% expectedECB’s Sleijpen: Energy prices likely to become more-entrenched in economy than 2022There’s blatant insider trading ongoing and if anyone tries to stop it they get fired
Markets:
WTI crude up $3.52 to $91.65US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.40%Gold down $2 to $4403 USD leads, NZD lagsS&P 500 down 0.4% led by software
There was less drama in Tuesdays trading as we continue to be driven by three conflicting narratives.
1) Trump continues to talk about ending the war
He highlighted that the Iranian officials how are negotiating with him proved they are in charge of the Strait and that they pledged not to get nuclear weapons. However, reports also indicate that Iran hasn’t accepted negotiations the US hopes to have on Thursday.
2) Iran is combative online
All the messages from Iranian leadership accounts online seem to indicate a combative stance and not much willingness to discuss peace after they were attacked during the last round of negotiations.
3) The US is sending more soldiers to the Middle East
Various report highlight that more soldiers are being moved into the Middle East with one contingent arriving on Friday, just as Trump’s deadline/delay on energy infrastructure strikes ends.
Given all this, there is endless speculation about what will come next. Today’s trade mostly saw a ‘war on’ move, unwinding some of yesterday’s optimism. Treasury yields and oil were higher along with the US dollar. Stocks were more-resilient with the exception of software stocks, which were hit alongside private credit again on fears of AI disruption.
Finally, keep an eye on gold as it’s flirting with a small decline on the day. If it finishes lower, it will be the tenth consecutive day of losses.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.