US February PCE inflation 2.8% y/y vs 2.8% expectedUS initial jobless claims 219K vs 210K estimateUS final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% expectedNetanyahu opens up direct negotiations with LebanonTrump will ask Netanyahu to reduce bombing in Lebanon to help negotiationsIran wants a complete ceasefire in Lebanon before negotiationsStatement from Iran’s Supreme Leader: Iran not seeking war but will not forfeit rightsTrump: Optimistic for a peace dealIran Pres. frames cease-fire as strength, not surrenderSenior Lebanese official says advocating for temporary ceasefire to allow for talksUS February wholesale inventories +0.8% vs -0.4% expectedIran deputy foreign min: Any peace must include Lebanon, the coming hours are critical
Markets:
WTI crude oil up $4.47 to $98.90US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.28%Gold up $53 to $4796NZD leads, JPY lagsS&P 500 up 0.6%
The early mood was worrisome as Iran dug in on the necessity of a ceasefire in Lebanon and threatened to walk away from negotiations if that doesn’t happen. That helped to boost WTI as high as $102.70 in a move that was increasingly weighing on risk assets.
The mood shifted after a report said Trump asked Netanyahu to cool it on Lebanon followed by Bibi announcing that he’d instructed the start of direct negotiations with Lebanon. For now, there appears to be an Israeli plan to keep up strikes during those negotiations and that may lead to Iran keeping the Strait closed.
In general, the market’s optimism comes from Trump, who highlighted ‘no nuclear weapons’ as his goal but also said the US military is looking forward to “its next conquest”.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.