August US ADP employment +54K vs +65K expectedISM August services PMI 52.0 vs 51.0 expectedUS September S&P Global final services PMI 54.5 vs 55.4 prelimUS initial jobless claims 237K vs 230K expectedFed’s Williams says he expects rates to come down gradually over timeWilliams: Expects tariff impact to play out into the middle of next yearMore from Williams: Sees reduced upside risk to inflation from tariffsUS EIA weekly oil inventories +2415K vs -2031K expectedMiran says tightening US borders is ‘deflationary’Miran: No one in the Trump admin has asked me to lower ratesCanada July trade balance -4.94B vs -4.75B expectedUS Q2 unit labor costs +1.0% vs +1.2% expectedUS July trade balance -78.3B vs -75.7B expected
Markets:
Gold down $8 to $3550WTI down 71-cents to $63.26S&P 500 up 53 points to 6501US 10-year yields down 4.6 bps to 4.16%USD leads, NZD lags
The stock market liked what it saw in the economic data on Thursday as a wave of releases painted a picture of an economy that’s subdued but not crumbling. Yesterday’s Beige Book and JOLTS data triggered some fears of a harder landing but today’s numbers — particularly the ISM services data, highlighted middling growth. That kind of trajectory is a good one for continued rate cuts even if it doesn’t mean strong demand. With that, the S&P 500 finished at the highest daily close ever at 6202 and just shy of the intraday record. It was a nice rally given that the index was in negative territory shortly after the open.
The same dynamic helped to lift the US dollar as some fears were allayed. The gains were mostly modest but it was enough to wipe out yesterday’s decline in USD/JPY.
Naturally, there is some angst about Friday’s non-farm payrolls report but the market wasn’t showing a great deal of anxiety.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.