Heads up for European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel speaking over the weekendFederal Reserve speakers Friday include Williams, Hammack and CookReports that Iran’s enriched uranium is stored in protected underground tunnelsUS will not complete scheduled deliveries of crude oil into the SPR until the end of yearNew Zealand inflation expectations have jumped to their highest since April 2023China’s industrial profits January – May 2025: -1.1% y/y (prior +1.4% y/y)Longtime Musk ally, top Tesla executive, and Elon Musk confidant, leaves the companyBitcoin analysis for today with tradeCompass by investingLivePBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1627 (vs. estimate at 7.1771)South Korea government holds emergency meeting on household debtEuropean Central Bank’s Piero Cipollone will speak on FridayJapan May retail sales +2.2% y/y (expected +2.7%)Goldman Sachs on oil, sees Brent $90 if interruption of trade through the Strait of HormuzJapan May unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.5%)Tokyo June 2025 headline CPI +3.1% y/y (3.3% expected)Kashkari says inflation is above 2%, have to get it back to 2%JP Morgan expects more USD weakness could encourage greater diversification into EM assetsMacron: If US 10% tariff stays, Europe will respond by imposing an equivalent on US firmsWhite House official dials it all back – its not a deal, its just an ‘understanding’US Com Secretary Lutnick announced the deal with China that was reached in Geneva in May!US Commerce Secretary Lutnick has said a US-China trade deal was signed two days agoTrump says just signed deal with China on WednesdayUS stocks threatens to close at record levels but closes just off record levelsThe United States has submitted a fresh trade deal proposal to the European UnionTrade ideas thread – Friday, 27 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasForexlive Americas FX news wrap: Rough day for the US dollar but some late life
Trump and Commerce Secretary Lutnick announced that a deal had been reached with China, though details were slow to emerge. The agreement amounts to an understanding to implement an additional framework for the previously stalled Geneva agreement. As part of the agreement, China will speed up licensing for rare earth mineral exports, while the U.S. agreed to roll back certain export controls — including on ethane shipments to China, as noted in yesterday’s wrap.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also spoke, highlighting the need for caution amid tariff uncertainty:
Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target and must come down.
The labour market remains strong, which the Fed wants to preserve.
Policymakers should move slowly until they better understand the inflationary impact of tariffs.
Some effects of tariff-related inflation are delayed, but they will emerge.
From Japan, the focus was on Tokyo CPI for June — often a lead indicator for nationwide inflation. Core inflation slowed for the first time in four months but remained elevated at 3.1% y/y, well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Energy inflation eased, but food prices continued to rise, with rice up around 90%, prompting government intervention.
Other Japanese data:
May unemployment held steady at 2.5%.
May retail sales came in weaker than expected at +2.2% y/y (vs. 2.7% forecast).
In China, industrial profits fell sharply, down by 9.1% y/y in May — the steepest drop since October — dragging the year-to-date figure from +1.4% (Jan–Apr) to -1.1% (Jan–May). The decline underscores persistent pressure on industrial firms from deflation, weak demand, and elevated U.S. tariffs, as Beijing’s stimulus measures struggle to restore corporate profitability.
In FX, USD/JPY was little changed on net after briefly rising above 144.80 on the earlier data before retracing. Elsewhere, major currencies traded in subdued ranges. The Taiwan dollar hit its strongest level against the U.S. dollar in over three years.
Gold traded lower again, slipping back toward US$3,300.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.