UK events for Wednesday include a Bank of England speaker and CPI data for JuneIf Trump fires Powell and appoints a lackey as Chair, that is only one vote out of 12Fed speakers Wednesday include New York head Williams. Beige Book also.China vice premier He Lifeng: China is stepping up efforts to boost consumptionApple signs $500M rare earth deal with US’ MP Materials to secure U.S. supply chainMorgan Stanley and UBS increase their 2025 China GDP forecastsThere are multiple FAKE NEWS report of Powell to resignPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1526 (vs. estimate at 7.1914)Trump says has secured the votes for passing GENIUS ActChina and Australia to review Free Trade AgreementFed’s Logan says there is a lot of uncertainty about tariff pass-through to consumers10-year US Treasury yield rises to a one-month high of 4.495%Fed’s Logan says ‘base case’ is Fed needs to hold tight for a whileEther rises to over five-month high above $3,138Trump says Powell renovations ‘sort of is’ a fireable offenseUS starts Section 301 tariff probe on Brazil’s trade practicesChina summit to have leaders from 20+ nations attending, 10 global bodiesJapan manufacturers’ sentiment improved in July despite tariff worries (Reuters Tankan)Trump: Bessent an option to replace Fed chair but I like the job he’s doing at TreasuryTrump says tariff payments start on August 1Trump auto tariffs deal won’t boost Tesla, as deeper concerns weigh on stockJapanese media repeats that Prime Minister Ishiba’s government risks losing its majorityWill forexlive.com evolving to investinglive.com be the bell ringing on the market top?Hong Kong’s central bank continues FX interventionAsian markets will wake up to a troubling picture on Wednesday – risks all over the placeForexlive Americas FX news wrap 15 Jul: US CPI data shows signs of tariff inflationReuters is reporting MUCH different API survey results for oil inventoriesUS stocks close mixed, but near the lows for the dayBailey urges global cooperation to ease financial risks, remains cautious on digital poundTrade ideas thread – Wednesday, 16 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
The session began with confusion over the private oil inventory survey for last week. The headline API figure initially showed a massive 19 million barrel build, but this was quickly corrected to a much smaller 839K increase. Product figures were similarly revised. Official government data is due Wednesday morning (U.S. time). Crude oil prices traded in a narrow range.
Trump returned to the headlines, announcing that:
Tariff payments will begin on August 1A trade deal with Vietnam is “pretty well set,” though still at the framework stageThe U.S. is currently working on 5–6 trade agreementsHe expects 2–3 of those deals to be completed by August 1Pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs will begin around August 1Tariff letters to smaller countries are coming soon, with duties “a little over 10%”He called Fed Chair Powell’s leadership a “sort of” fireable offence
On the central bank front, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gave a speech reaffirming a patient stance on interest rates. Key takeaways:
The Fed is likely to keep rates steady for now in a “wait and see” mode
Rate cuts are not off the table — should inflation soften and the labor market weaken, a cut would be possible
In the Q&A, Logan emphasized uncertainty around how much tariffs will be passed on to consumers
Many businesses are adopting a wait-and-see approach before raising prices
The FOMC will continue to monitor the data through summer and into autumn before making decisions
In crypto, Trump posted that he had secured the votes needed to pass the GENIUS Act.
Major FX pairs remained tightly range-bound, while U.S. Treasury yields held at elevated levels.
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ETH/USD hit a fresh 5-month high BEFORE Trump announced he had secured the votes for his GEMIUS Act. The GENIUS Act and other U.S. legislative progress toward stablecoin regulation are boosting confidence—and demand—in the Ethereum ecosystem.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.