China June USD denominated exports +5.8% y/y (expected +5.0%)China January-June yuan denominated exports to the US -9.9% y/yTrump to unveil “aggressive” plan for weapons to UkraineAlbanese underscores importance of China ties, calls for regional stabilityChina June 2025 yuan denominated Exports +7.2% y/y (prior +6.3%)China YTD (January-June) yuan denominated exports +7.2% y/yAustralia’s BHP signed memorandum of understanding with Chinese battery manufacturer CATLEUR, JPY higher vs. USD while AUD & NZD languishANZ see oil supply worry – Trump/Putin riftPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1491 (vs. estimate at 7.1744)China’s economy likely grew faster than the government’s annual target in Q2Musk: Tesla will put the question of investing in his AI start-up xAI to shareholder voteSingapore data – Preliminary Q2 GDP +1.4% q/q and +4.3% y/yJapan May 2025 Core Machinery Orders -0.6% m/m (expected -1.5%, prior -9.1%)Trump says EU, South Korea talking to US on tradeWhere are Sovereign Wealth Funds and Central Banks shifting funds to? China, USDNew Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales June 2025 +0.5% m/m (prior -0.1%)New Zealand Performance Services Index June 2025 47.3 (vs. prior 44.1)US equity index futures down around 0.5% after Trump 30% tariff threat against EU, MexicoEU nears agreement on lower Russian oil price cap in new sanctions packageIran’s president was lucky to escape being killed during the war with Israel in JuneEU extends pause on US trade retaliation to allow more talksChinese President Xi Jinping’s war on deflation speeds up – “Anti – involution” policyDeutsche Bank warns that markets are underestimating the risk of Trump firing PowellTrade ideas thread – Monday, 14 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasGermanys Merz will work closely with Macron, von der Leyen to resolve trade ahead of Aug 1Monday open levels, indicative FX prices 14 July 2025 – Small gap higher for USDNewsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI and Retail Sales, UK CPI and Jobs report, China trade and GDPTrump hits the European Union (EU) with a 30% tariff, starting on August 1Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Canadian jobs jump, no EU tariff letter yet
It was a mixed start to the week in Asia, following a weekend announcement from Trump that 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico will take effect from August 1. Leaders in both Brussels and Mexico City signalled they will continue negotiations with the U.S. this month in hopes of reaching a lower tariff rate.
FX
Early Asia FX trade opened with a gap higher in the USD, though most of those gaps quickly closed.
JPY outperformed slightly
AUD, NZD, and GBP lagged
The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to a three-week high
Key Data
Japan May Core Machinery Orders:
-0.6% m/m, +4.4% y/y (both better than expected)
Despite its volatility and dated nature, the report was viewed as mildly encouraging
China June Trade Data:
Exports beat expectations
Imports rose for the first time in 2025
China is still recording a massive monthly trade surplus of US$115 billion, despite facing hefty U.S. tariffs
H1 trade with the U.S. declined, but officials at the General Administration of Customs noted signs of recovery and expressed hope for further improvement in the months ahead
Equities
Asia-Pacific equity markets showed varied performance:
Australia (S&P/ASX 200): Flat
Hong Kong (Hang Seng): -0.1%
Japan (Nikkei 225): -0.25%
Shanghai Composite: +0.4%
U.S. equity index futures traded lower through the session.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin surged above $120,000, setting a new all-time high
Geopolitics
French President Emmanuel Macron called for a major boost in defence spending, warning that freedom in Europe faces its greatest threat since World War II.
Axios reported that Trump is preparing an “aggressive” new weapons plan for Ukraine, including long-range offensive missiles capable of striking deep into Russia—marking a significant shift from his prior focus on supplying only defensive aid.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.