Reuters carry a few comments from analysts in response to the weekend developments re Trump’s strike on Iran.
JP Morgan take a bit of a big pic view:
cautioned that past episodes
of regime change in the region typically resulted in oil prices
spiking by as much as 76% and averaging a 30% rise over time
Trump floated the idea of regime change after many in the admin deniend this was a goal:
Trump is tweeting about regime change in Iran
ANZ on the nearer term:
“With the U.S. becoming involved, the risk of Iran
retaliating by disrupting the flows of oil from the Middle East
has risen significantly,” “Prices in the
$90–95/bbl range would be the likely outcome.”
I passed on info a few minutes ago saying that while closing Hormuz is not going to happen, that doesn’t mean there will be no disruption:
There is basically zero chance Iran will be able to close the Strait of Hormuz
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.