HomeBlogUncategorizedUS September Philly Fed business index +37.8 vs +30.5 expected

US September Philly Fed business index +37.8 vs +30.5 expected

Prior was +47.4

Details:

New orders 29.2 versus 30.1 last monthShipments 27.7 versus 27.7 last monthUnfilled orders 20.4 versus 14.4 last monthDelivery times 26.5 versus 3.7 last monthInventories -12.5 versus -3.7 last monthPrices paid 48.6 versus 40.9 last monthPrices received 31.3 versus 17.7 last monthNumber of employees 11.8 versus 27.9 last monthAverage employee workweek 18.0 versus 26.5 last month

Six-months from now indicators:

6 month index 52.9 vs 73.6 last monthCapex index 6-month forward 37.1 versus 48.2 last monthNew orders 62.3 versus 66.0 last monthShipments 61.1 versus 63.5 last monthUnfilled orders 16.8 versus 8.5 last monthDelivery times 18.6 versus 0.0 last monthInventories 11.6 versus 17.4 last monthPrices paid 71.3 versus 62.9 last monthPrices received 72.3 versus 59.8 last monthNumber of employees 50.6 versus 35.4 last monthAverage employee workweek 31.8 versus 21.4 last month

The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all remained elevated this month. The employment index fell but remained positive, continuing to suggest overall increases in employment. Both price indicators moved higher this month after declining last month. The firms continued to expect overall growth over the next six months.

This is not a market-moving report but the tick lower in the 6-month index could be an early sign of slowing economic activity due to elevated energy prices, tighter financial conditions and Fed rate hikes. I would look for more such signs in the more important S&P Global and ISM PMIs, as downside surprises there could lead to some dovish repricing in interest rate expectations.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.


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