The latest monthly survey from the NY Fed:
One-year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.6%Three year inflation expectations to 3.2% vs 3.3% priorFive year inflation expectations unchanged at 3%Expectations for higher unemployment at worst since April 2020Labor market expectations were ‘mixed’ overallConsumers projected higher future gasoline pricesViews about current and future personal finance deteriorated
There isn’t much good news in this report but for the Fed, the inflation expectations metric — by far — is the most important one and it doesn’t argue for hiking this month. The market is pricing in a 57% chance of a hike.
Expectations for higher unemployment:
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.