GDP 1st estimate 1.6% (they were expecting 2.1% before the 1st release). GDP 2nd revision 1.5% vs 1.5% estimateConsumer Spending 3.4% vs 3.2% preliminary estimateGDP Deflator 6.4% vs 6.2% estimateCore PCE YoY 3.6% vs 3.4% estimatePCE Prices YoY 5.3% vs 5.1% estimatePCE ex food energy and housing Q2 3.4% vs 3.2% preliminaryPCE Services ex energy and housing Q2 3.7% vs 3.4% preliminary
Other details:
GDP slowed in Q2: The deceleration reflected lower government spending, slower investment and export growth, and a larger increase in imports. Stronger consumer spending provided a partial offset.
Underlying domestic demand remained solid: Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2%, revised up from 3.9%.
Inflation was revised higher: The gross domestic purchases price index increased 5.8%, while headline PCE rose 5.3% and core PCE increased 3.6%.
Income growth strengthened: Real GDI rose 2.2%, up from 1.2% in Q1. The average of real GDP and GDI increased 1.8%, compared with 1.7% previously.
Corporate profits surged: Profits from current production increased by $400.9 billion, sharply higher than the $74.4 billion increase in Q1.
Overall, the report shows slower headline GDP growth but stronger consumer demand, income growth and corporate profits. The less favorable side of the report was the renewed inflation pressure and the drag from government spending and net trade.
A closer look at the contributing pieces to the GDP of 1.5%:
Consumer 2.31%Investment 0.48%Government -0.16%Net trade -1.14% with exports adding 0.50% and imports subtracting -1.64%
Below is an infograph of the data and the breakdown
US stocks are little changed with the Dow up 10 points, the S&P is down -20 points, and the Nasdaq is down -109 points.
NOTES on Inflation measures and implications:
GDP deflator: The broadest measure. It tracks prices for all goods and services produced domestically—including consumer purchases, business investment, government spending and exports. It excludes imports because they are produced outside the United States.
Headline PCE: Measures prices paid for goods and services purchased by consumers. It includes food and energy, which can make it more volatile. The Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% inflation goal is defined using headline PCE inflation.
Core PCE: The same consumer-price measure but excludes food and energy. Because those prices can swing sharply, core PCE is generally viewed as a better indicator of the underlying inflation trend.
The important distinction is that the GDP deflator measures price changes across the entire domestic economy, while PCE focuses only on consumer spending. Core PCE then strips out food and energy to provide a smoother view of underlying consumer inflation.
In this report, the 6.4% GDP deflator points to broad price pressure across domestic production. The 5.3% headline PCE reading shows the inflation consumers experienced overall, while 3.6% core PCE suggests underlying consumer inflation remained elevated even after excluding food and energy.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.