UBS sees Fed on hold as Warsh downplays inflation risk despite hike betsChina services growth eases slightly as export orders hit 20-month highJapan fin min says ready to respond to FX movesPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8047 (vs. estimate at 6.7808)Canada – PM Carney confirms southern Trans Mountain route for new Alberta pipelineJapan services activity rebounds as input costs hit four-year inflation highInvestors demand $15.6 billion from private credit, get back just $5.9 billion.Australian services activity returns to growth but confidence hits 2.5-year lowNZ consumer confidence rebounds as inflation expectations reset lowerLagarde defends June rate hike as core inflation and supply shock persistSaudi Hormuz oil shipments surge as post-war tanker backlog clearing (still below pre-war)UBS slash oil price forecasts sharply, Q3 down $25. Oil recap – Doha encouragement.US stocks close the holiday shortened week mixedinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: US dollar slides as non-farm payrolls miss
Summary points:
Asia-Pac equities recovered from an early sell-off, with the Nikkei and KOSPI leading a broad-based bounce back into positive territoryJapan’s services PMI rose to 52.2 in June from 50.0, with a stronger yen and softer oil prices driving rotation out of tech into cyclicals and consumer namesGold jumped over 1% as soft US jobs data pared back expectations for further Fed tighteningUSD/JPY held around 161.00-161.50 in subdued trade, with fresh verbal intervention from Japan’s finance minister keeping traders cautious ahead of the thin-liquidity US holidayCanada’s Carney unveiled a $200 billion pipeline and Pathways carbon capture package, with Trans Mountain and Pembina building a new VLCC-capable export route to the PacificChina’s PBOC trimmed government bond purchases to a nine-month low in June, signalling growing caution over further yield declines
Asia-Pacific equities staged a solid recovery on Friday, bouncing back from an early sell-off to finish broadly higher across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was choppy through the session, sliding as much as 1.6% before clawing back the losses to trade up 0.7% by lunch, while the broader Topix climbed 0.9%. The volatility reflected a tug-of-war between lingering concerns over stretched tech valuations and a run of encouraging domestic data, with the KOSPI following a similar path to also finish in the green.
Underpinning the recovery was a stronger-than-expected reading on Japan’s service sector. The final S&P Global Japan Services PMI for June rose to 52.2 from a neutral 50.0 in May, reinforcing the sense that domestic demand remains a source of resilience even as export orders soften. A firmer yen and falling oil prices helped trigger a rotation out of technology names and into cyclical and consumer-facing sectors, a shift that traders will be watching closely heading into next week for signs of durability.
Gold was the standout mover elsewhere, rising more than 1% after Thursday’s softer-than-expected US jobs data tempered expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Both the official nonfarm payrolls print and the preceding ADP release came in weaker than forecast, easing concerns around a higher-for-longer rate path and giving bullion a clear tailwind. Oil futures were far more muted by comparison, eking out only mild gains in rangebound trade with no fresh geopolitical catalysts to drive direction.
Currency markets stayed largely subdued, though USD/JPY saw somewhat busier two-way trade around the 161.00 to 161.50 area. Verbal intervention from Japan’s finance minister added a layer of caution for traders, a reminder that Tokyo remains alert to disorderly yen moves even as broader FX ranges stayed tight heading into the thinly traded US holiday session.
On the geopolitical and infrastructure front, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney used a press conference to unveil the terms of a long-awaited West Coast pipeline deal. Trans Mountain, the government-owned pipeline operator, has been tapped to build a new export line connecting Alberta’s oil sands to a Vancouver-area port capable of handling very large crude carriers, with construction potentially starting as early as September 2027. Pembina Pipeline has come on as a non-binding co-proponent alongside Trans Mountain, Alberta and the federal government, while a tripartite agreement with oil sands companies pairs investment incentives with regulatory reform to help ensure the pipeline runs at capacity. Carney put the combined value of the associated projects, including the Pathways carbon capture initiative, at around $200 billion.
Rounding out the session, data from China showed the People’s Bank of China trimmed its government bond purchases to their smallest scale in nine months in June. The pullback suggests policymakers are growing more cautious about the risk of further yield declines or excess liquidity building in the system, a subtle but notable shift in tone from Beijing heading into the third quarter.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.