Prior was -0.1%Preliminary May reading +0.1%
April details:
Goods-producing industries rose 1.2% in AprilServices-producing industries grew 0.3%The manufacturing sector rose 0.6% in AprilThe construction sector grew 0.7%14 of the 20 industrial sectors grew in April
There has been some angst about a recession in Canada after a negative reading in Q4 and a 0.1% decline in Q1 but the +0.5% m/m reading in April erases any indication of negative growth.
Overall, the +0.5% is a modest beat but won’t be much of a factor for the loonie. It reverses March’s 0.1% contraction and marks broad strength — 14 of 20 sectors expanded. The catch: a huge chunk of this is energy, and energy is lumpy and will probably retreat with oil prices lower.
Mining, quarrying and oil & gas jumped 2.9%, the best since February 2024, led by a 6.6% rebound in oil sands as synthetic crude production recovered from maintenance that dragged the first quarter. Strip out the noise and you’ve got a 0.3% gain in services and a manufacturing rebound (+0.6%) on machinery, that’s genuinely encouraging given the tariff backdrop.
Construction rose for the first time in five months. Real estate ticked up on GTA resale activity — the first gain there since August. All constructive and further underscores that real estate has bottomed (though it isn’t recovering fast).
Looking ahead, the April pop borrowed from momentum that’s already fading. Wholesale and agriculture are dragging. The next report is due on July 31 and USD/CAD was last up 20 pips to 1.4227.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.