Here are all the state readings released around the same time:
Bavaria CPI +2.5% vs +2.6% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.5% vs +2.7% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.1% vs +2.4% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.1% vs +2.4% y/y prior
This should be some added comfort for the ECB as with the French numbers earlier. It reflects a further decline in headline annual inflation in Germany, so there is no negative surprise to rush a July decision as potentially warned here.
The monthly estimates also show inflation falling in Bavaria (-0.2%), North Rhine Westphalia (-0.4%), and Baden Wuerttemberg (-0.2%). Only Saxony (+0.2%) recorded a positive monthly inflation bump.
But in terms of annual estimates, they are all lower when compared to May. As such, this likely points to the national reading later coming in around 2.4% at the balance. That will reflect a drop from the 2.6% seen in May last month.
All in all, this should see the ECB take their foot off the gas and wait until after the summer before considering another rate hike. Traders are now pricing in just ~28 bps of rate hikes by year-end, as compared to ~30 bps before the inflation data today.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.