Reuters poll in near unanimous: RBA seen holding at 4.35% on June 16Westpac sees RBA hold at the June 15-16 meeting, but more hikes aheadIRGC vows “regret-inducing” response, signals no surrender on dealReport – US forces down Iranian drones going for strikes on Hormuz shippingPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8109 (vs. estimate at 6.7640)South Korea’s central bank governor Shin says interest rates need to be increasedJapan’s Nikkei share index up more than 4% on Trump-Iran ‘deal’CME to launch 24/7 trading for micro oil and gold contracts. 24/7 futures.US, Canada delay Gordie Howe bridge opening after Trump objectsMore on this – Iran blocks Hormuz tanker as closure threat takes effectReports: new Supreme Leader yet to bless Trump’s Iran dealNZ manufacturing PMI dips to 49.9 as Mideast conflict bites. Fuel costs, demand weigh.Hormuz tanker blocked as Iran disputes scope of US dealOil price drop on Trump’s 39th ‘deal’ announcement. Pavlov’s dog meets Shcrodinger’s cat.investingLive Americas FX news wrap: Another day, another ‘deal soon’. This time for sure?US-Iran Schrödinger’s cat deal: signed and unsigned at once. Where are we at?
Summary
Trump cancelled planned Thursday strikes on Iran, citing a near-complete deal with a possible weekend signing in EuropeIran disputed claims of a finalised agreement, with the Supreme Leader’s approval reportedly still outstandingIranian forces blocked a tanker attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz without coordination, with explosions reported near SirikUS forces shot down two Iranian drones near Hormuz after an attempted strike on commercial shippingOil prices remain subdued, USD ticks higher, regional equities rally led by Japan
Asian markets staged a broad rally on Friday even as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remained fluid, with diplomatic optimism around a potential US-Iran deal offset by continued flare-ups on the water.
President Trump cancelled planned US strikes on Iran scheduled for Thursday night, saying a deal had been largely agreed and could be signed as early as this weekend in Europe. However, Iranian officials disputed claims that a final agreement had been reached, with reports suggesting approval from the Supreme Leader remains outstanding.
Adding to the uncertainty, Iranian forces blocked a tanker attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz without prior coordination, with the vessel complying after warnings from the IRGC Navy. Explosions were also reported near the coastal town of Sirik in connection with the incident. Separately, US forces shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones near the strait after Iran attempted to strike commercial vessels transiting the waterway.
Despite these tensions, oil prices remained subdued, having reversed sharply lower on Thursday after the cancelled strikes removed a chunk of the geopolitical risk premium that had built up over recent sessions. The US dollar saw a modest bounce, clawing back some of Thursday’s broad-based weakness.
Regional equities, meanwhile, extended Thursday’s risk-on tone with solid gains across the board. Japan’s Nikkei led the advance, up around 4%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.7% and the Shanghai Composite gained 1.6%.
The combination of a diplomatically framed de-escalation alongside ongoing military activity around Hormuz leaves markets in something of a holding pattern, pricing in optimism on the deal front while remaining alert to the practical situation on the water, where Iran’s actions continue to diverge from the narrative of an imminent, comprehensive resolution.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.