EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, the main highlight was the UK GDP report. The data beat expectations almost across the board, with a solid performance in March. All in all, it shows that the UK economy was faring pretty well before the US-Iran war started.
Looking ahead, we just get the Spanish Final CPI data which is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will likely be muted.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data. The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.5% vs 1.7% prior, while the Ex-Autos M/M figure is seen at 0.6% vs 1.9% prior. The more important Retail Control measure is expected at 0.4% vs 0.7% prior. Retail Sales is a volatile indicator and although it’s a market-moving release, it rarely changes trends and most of the time the reaction is faded.
Initial Claims are expected at 205K vs 200K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1780K vs 1766K prior. The Jobless Claims data has been pointing to gradual improvement in the labour market with Initial Claims hovering near cycle lows and Continuing Claims falling to the lowest level since 2024.
With a resilient labour market and inflation going in the wrong way, the Fed has little choice but to keep rates steady for longer, even though adopting a hawkish bias would be better.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
09:15 GMT/05:15 ET – ECB President Lagarde (neutral – voter)14:15 GMT/10:15 ET – Fed’s Schmid (hawkish – non voter)15:15 GMT/11:15 ET – BoE’s Pill (hawkish – voter)17:00 GMT/13:00 ET – Fed’s Hammack (hawkish – voter)21:30 GMT/17:30 ET – Fed’s Barr (neutral – voter)21:45 GMT/17:45 ET – Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.