Prior was +3.3% y/yCPI m/m +0.6% vs +0.6% expected
Prior m/m +0.9%
Core measures:
Core CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.3% expected. Last month +0.2%
Core CPI y/y +2.8% vs +2.7% expected. Last month was +2.6%
Real weekly earnings -0.2% vs -0.9% priorShelter +0.6% vs +0.3% last month
Shelter y/y +3.3% Services less energy services +0.5% m/m vs +0.2% prior
Services less energy services y/y +3.3%
Food +0.5% m/m vs 0.0% m/m prior
Food +3.2% y/y
Energy +3.8% m/m vs +10.9% m/m prior Energy +17.9% y/y
Rents +0.5% m/m vs +0.2% prior Owner’s equivalent rent +0.5% vs +0.3% prior
Gasoline +5.4% m/m vs +21.2% prior
Used cars and trucks 0.0% m/m vs -0.4% prior
New vehicles -0.2% m/m vs +0.1% prior Airline fares +2.8% m/m vs +2.7% prior (+20.7% y/y) Lodging away from home +2.4% m/m
Apparel +0.6% m/m vs +1.0% prior Medical care services 0.0% m/m vs 0.0% prior
Medical care commodities -0.4% m/m vs -1.0% prior
Hospital services -0.3% m/m
Motor vehicle insurance +0.1% m/m vs 0.0% prior (+0.2% y/y)
Energy was again the headline mover, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all-items increase, though the pace slowed sharply from March’s +10.9%. Gasoline rose +5.4% m/m after surging +21.2% the month before, but the year-over-year gasoline number is still running at +28.4%. Fuel oil added another +5.8% m/m and is up +54.3% y/y. Electricity rose +2.1% m/m and is +6.1% y/y.
The shelter story re-accelerated. After three months of +0.2% to +0.3% prints, shelter jumped to +0.6%, with OER and rent both at +0.5% and lodging away from home up +2.4%. It’s the main reason core moved back to +0.4% after two months at +0.2%.
Outside of shelter, the core breadth was wider than recent months. Household furnishings and operations +0.7%, personal care +0.7%, apparel +0.6%, airline fares +2.8%, education +0.2%, and recreation +0.1% all added on the services and core goods side.
Offsetting that: new vehicles -0.2%, communication -0.2%, medical care commodities -0.4%, and hospital services -0.3%. Used cars were flat after two -0.4% prints.
Food at home rose +0.7% m/m, the firmest reading in some time, led by beef +2.7%, fresh vegetables +3.9% (tomatoes +15.1%), nonalcoholic beverages +1.1%, and dairy +0.8%. Eggs ticked up +1.5% m/m but are still -39.2% y/y as the base effects from last year’s spike continue to wash through.
On the broader aggregates, all items less food, shelter and energy was +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y. Commodities less food and energy commodities were flat at 0.0%. Services less energy services at +0.5% m/m was worrisome for the Fed.
A reminder on the data gap: October and November 2025 CPI were not published due to the appropriations lapse, so year-over-year comparisons span an unusual reference period. BLS also rebased a number of series to December 2024 = 100 with this release.
The next CPI report, for May, is scheduled for June 10.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.