US April non-farm payrolls +115K vs +62K expectedCanada employment change -17.7K vs 15.0K estimate. Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 6.7% expectedUS and Iran could resume talks next week — reportECB’s Nagel: ECB will do whatever necessary to him he energy price surgeIran: From now on actions of the US maritime blockade will be met with military responseFed’s Goolsbee: inflation has not been great. Job market is pretty much stableECB’s Legarde: Higher energy costs will push up input pricesUniversity of Michigan sentiment for May 48.2 versus 49.5 estimate
Markets:
WTI crude oil down 7 cents to $94.76US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.36%Gold up $30 to $4716S&P 500 up 0.8%GBP leads, USD lags
The tech optimism is at a fever pitch as the Nasdaq climbed for the sixth straight week, adding 30% in that time and another 5% this week. Chip names continued to soar as Micron gained 15% and Intel 14% among others. The enthusiasm for AI is grossly overshadowing any worries about oil prices or rate hikes.
On oil prices, they finished the day flat after climbing earlier. A late WSJ report indicated progress on a 14-point one-page plan to lay out the parameters for a month of negotiations on nuclear, sanctions and other problems. The day started with US attacks on parts of Iran but Trump dismissed them as minor and that was enough for the rest of the market to forget it.
In terms of rate hikes, a second consecutive strong jobs report highlights how Kevin Warsh will have a tough time making the case for rate cuts this year. The ongoing boom in stock markets also adds to US consumer spending firepower. The lone dovish parts of the report were slightly softer than expected wage growth and another tick lower in labor force participation, which is down more than 1 percentage point since 2024.
The US dollar softened across the board but it was more about war optimism than the jobs report.
The Canadian dollar gained on USD but struggled elsewhere as April jobs were poor and included a further rise in the unemployment rate.
Have a great weekend.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.