Two headwinds that will make things look worse going forward.
A year ago tame PCE MoM data will fall off from the YoY calculation, putting upside pressure on the YoY levels.
May 2024, 0.0%June 2024, 0.1%July 2024, 0.2%August 2024, 0.1%September 2024, 0.2%October 2024, 0.2%
3- month average: 0.1% 6-month average: 0.13%
For the core MoM over the next 6-months
May 2024, 0.1%June 2024, 0.2%July 2024, 0.2%August 2024, 0.1%September 2024, 0.3%October 2024, 0.3%
3-month average of core PCE: 1.67%6-month average of core PCE: 0.2%
MoM gains of 0.2% or more for headline and core data will mathematically move the YoY up for the headline and the core measures.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.