Former Fed Chair Yellen sees one Fed cut possible as Iran-driven inflation clouds outlook.Iran clears missile base tunnels during ceasefire, signalling rearmament riskHeads up for NZD and CHF traders, RBNZ Gov Breman and SNB Chair Schlegel to speakMuch chatter that Iran talks to resume as ceasefire extension discussedPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8582 (vs. estimate at 6.8096)Trump says Iran war: “I view it as very close to over.”Trump and Vance goosed the market – Iran talks, war over. Vibe trading.Australian jobs data preview: Labour data to miss Iran impact, slowdown seen laterJapan manufacturers’ confidence drops most in 3 years on Iran war impactHeads up for Trump interview at 6am US Eastern time Wednesday, April 15, 2026Vance signals US–Iran progress, pushes ‘grand bargain’ as ceasefire holdsOil market misreads Hormuz: supply remains tight despite reopening hopesBessent flags tariff return by July, adding to global risks from Iran warDeutsche Bank sees EUR/USD above 1.20 as dollar loses yield and safe-haven supportinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: The peace dividend continues to payOil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expectedOver 100 empty oil tankers head to US ports to load export crude
ADDED LATE:
Trump said that he isn’t thinking about extending the ceasefire, adding that he doesn’t think it will be necessary.
“I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead. I really do,”
Summary:
Optimism extends into Asia on US–Iran deal signals
Vance flags progress, “grand bargain” framework in play
Trump tone mixed: “very close to over” but not finished
Oil softens as geopolitical risk premium eases
Japan manufacturing sentiment hit by energy shock
USD firms modestly, equities supported but off highs
The optimistic tone carried into the Asia session, supported by further constructive signals from US officials on Iran negotiations.
US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran are progressing, with the ceasefire holding for a seventh consecutive day and a broader “grand bargain” under discussion. While key gaps remain, the continuation of negotiations is helping to underpin a cautiously constructive market mood. Reports also suggest Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks ahead of next week’s ceasefire deadline, alongside Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Vance added that if Iran commits to forgoing nuclear weapons, the US would support its economic reintegration.
Messaging from Donald Trump remained characteristically mixed. A promotional clip for a Fox interview suggested Trump viewed the war as “over,” which initially lifted sentiment. However, subsequent remarks were more measured, with Trump saying the conflict is “very close to over” but stressing operations are not yet complete and that developments in coming days will be key. The tone reflects ongoing uncertainty despite improving headlines.
In markets, oil remained on the back foot, with softer price action suggesting a further easing in geopolitical risk premium. That said, the session spike low should provide near-term technical levels to watch.
Data-wise, Japan’s Reuters Tankan survey showed the sharpest drop in manufacturing sentiment in three years, highlighting the growing impact of higher energy costs and supply disruptions, even as domestic-facing sectors remain relatively resilient.
In FX, the US dollar saw a modest bounce, with USD/JPY pushing back toward the 159.00 level. US equity futures remained supported, albeit slightly off session highs, as markets balance improving geopolitical signals against lingering uncertainty.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.