In case your trading body clock hasn’t adjusted yet, let this serve as a bit of a reminder. It may be the first week of a new month but it’s one of those rare occasions where we won’t see the US non-farm payrolls data get released. And we have the longest government shutdown in US history in part to thank.
The delay saw the October numbers not be published and now those will be combined together with the November numbers but only due to be released on 16 December instead. The most significant point about that date is that it will be six days after the Fed’s final FOMC meeting for the year.
Is it all a ruse though that the BLS is timing it so as to not reflect “better” numbers that might get in the way of a Fed rate hike next week? Well, it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing.
The only thing that they have revealed so far is that the delay in reporting has seen the establishment survey collection rate move up to a higher-than-usual 80.2% as businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown. For some context, low survey collection rates have accounted for major revisions to payrolls data in the past.
Circling back to the Fed though, markets are pricing in ~92% odds of a rate cut for December now. So, that’s the main thing to watch out for and if there will be any further communication by policymakers in guiding the path for interest rates going into next year.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.