Australia inflation jumps again, wiping out rate-cut hopes and lifting AUD, yields – recapNZD higher – recapping RBNZ cuts to 2.25% but signals end to easing as NZ economy steadiesFed politicization, “Hassett effect” a potential shadow on the USDTaiwan warns China speeding up military preparations and intensifying grey-zone pressureChina accuses Japan, Taiwan’s DPP of provoking tensions and warns against interferenceRecap: Trump drops deadline 4 Ukraine peace deal as U.S. seeks rapid agreement with RussiaSouth Korea signals tough action as won weakness and speculative FX trading riseRBNZ Gov Hawkseby: Central projection is based on cash rate on hold through 2026Yen finds bids after news piece says BOJ ramping up rate hike messagingBOJ ramps up signals for near-term rate hike as yen weakness and politics shiftChina accelerates AI factory revolution to protect status as the world’s manufacturing hubThe People’s Bank of China has set the onshore yuan at its strongest since 14 October 2024NZD jumped after the RBNZ interest rate reduction decisionRBNZ cuts its cash rate by 25bp, as widely expectedAustralian dollar jumped after the much stronger than expected inflation dataAustralia CPI (October) 0.0% m/m (-0.2% expected) & 3.8% y/y (3.6% expected)Trump bullish on Ukraine-Russia peace, but says no deadline for a dealJapanese October Services PPI 2.7% (vs. expected 2.7% & prior 3.0%)Daly’s dovish tone boosts SGD as USD softens – MUFG analysisMore on HP: To cut up to 6,000 jobs as it ramps up companywide AI transformationDeutsche Bank sees S&P 500 surging to 8,000 by end-2026JPMorgan forecasts EUR/CHF at 0.95 in Q1 2026, rising to 0.96 by Q4 ’26Alphabet climbs toward $4T as Nvidia slides on rising AI-chip competitionDeutsche Bank sees euro rising to 1.25 end-2026 (global growth, Europe recover, soft USD)Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw vs. small build expectedBOJ board turns more hawkish as Ueda keeps December and January openinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 25 Nov; USD moves lower as rate cut exp. rise to 83%HP Q4 revenue beats; 2026 EPS guidance trails, 4k-6k jobs to goUK fin min Reeves increases minimum wage by 4.1% ahead of tax-raising Budget – FTTrade ideas thread – Wednesday, 26 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
We had several notable currency moves during the session.
Australia delivered another hotter-than-expected inflation print. The new monthly CPI series showed headline inflation rising 3.8% y/y in October, the fastest in ten months and above the 3.6% median forecast, marking a fourth straight month of re-acceleration since the June trough. The trimmed mean rose to 3.3%, continuing its upward trend and staying above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. With inflation heading the wrong way, you can forget about rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia any time soon. The data gave the Australian dollar a solid lift.
Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate target by 25bps to 2.25%, the lowest since mid-2022, but signalled the easing cycle is effectively over. The Bank now projects the OCR to hold around 2.25% in early 2026 before rising to 2.65% by late 2027, guidance that shuts the door on further cuts. Markets reacted quickly: the New Zealand dollar rallied about 1% to a one-week high and two-year swaps jumped.
The yen strengthened on rising expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike, with USD/JPY and yen crosses broadly lower. The catalyst was a Reuters report flagging a shift in BOJ communication around the weak yen, suggesting a possible December move. Japan’s 40-year JGB auction, meanwhile, drew demand slightly above its 12-month average as higher yields enticed buyers despite lingering fiscal concerns.
The PBOC set the onshore yuan at its strongest level since 14 October 2024.
In geopolitics:
President Trump said he has abandoned his self-imposed Thanksgiving deadline for a Ukraine peace deal, noting that talks with Russia and Kyiv are progressing but need more time.China accused Japan and Taiwan’s ruling DPP of provoking tensions in the Taiwan Strait, warning that any external interference would face firm retaliation, a headline that helped underpin gold.
Asian equities gained, extending Wall Street’s advance, as weaker U.S. data reinforced expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
Asia-Pac
stocks:
Japan
(Nikkei 225) +1.65%Hong
Kong (Hang Seng) +0.45%
Shanghai
Composite +0.14%Australia
(S&P/ASX 200) +0.6%
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.