US October NFIB small business optimism index 98.2 vs 98.3 expectedGermany November ZEW survey economic sentiment 38.5 vs 41.0 expectedPBOC says to implement appropriately loose monetary policyReminder: It is a partial market holiday in the US todayBoE’s Greene: Risk management around inflation needs to influence BoE policy viewsLimited risk of JPY intervention for the time being, says Goldman SachsECB’s Vujcic: Risks are balanced around inflationECB’s Kocher: We are in a good position on interest ratesECB’s Elderson: Inflation risks are balancedBOE rate cut odds nudge up after softer labour market reportIs this a precursor to the next big correction in the stock market?UK September ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 4.9% expectedFX option expiries for 11 November 10am New York cutGold getting ahead of the curve?China reportedly considers new system in fast-tracking rare earth exports
The main highlight today was the UK labour market report. The data missed across the board strengthening the expectations for a December cut from the BoE. In fact, the probabilities jumped from 61% to 81% after the release.
On the data front, we had also the German ZEW survey which missed expectations but didn’t change anything for the market given the ECB neutral stance.
Other than that, we didn’t have anything of note really. We got a few ECB members repeating the same old stuff saying that inflation risks are balanced and that interest rates are at appropriate levels. We’ve also heard from BoE’s Greene but despite the softer employment data, she maintained her usual hawkish stance.
As a reminder, today is a US federal holiday (Veterans Day) with the stock market open and the bond market closed. Moreover, the ADP was supposed to release their weekly jobs data today at 13:15 GMT/08:15 ET, but I don’t see it on any calendar. Some have it for tomorrow but the last time the ADP released their weekly data they said they would release it every Tuesday.
Not sure if it’s going to be today or tomorrow, but keep an eye on that as it should be market-moving given the focus on the US labour market data from the Fed and the market.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.