FX option expiries for Monday 3 November (10am New York cut)Yale study finds ‘TACO gap’: U.S. tariffs on China far lower than Trump claimsICYMI: China scraps gold tax incentive, ANZ warns of market repercussionsHSBC sees U.S. dollar bottoming in early 2026 amid Fed cuts and leadership uncertaintyRussian Prime Minister Mishustin to visit China November 3–4, will meet Premier Li QiangChina’s Premier Li Qiang to deliver keynote at Shanghai import expoChina private survey manufacturing PMI (October 2025) 50.6 (expected 50.7)Goldman Sachs: Current U.S. shutdown could cause record economic damageTrump says U.S. will block China from getting Nvidia’s most advanced chipsPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0867 (vs. estimate at 7.1171)Australia exchange news – Cboe launches sale process after securing listings licenceSouth Korea factory activity contracts again as U.S. tariffs weigh on demandAustralian September Household Spending +0.2% m/m . September building permits +12% m/m.Australia private inflation indicator higher at 3.1% y/y in October (prior 3.0%)Deutsche Bank: Eurozone resilience means ECB’s easing cycle is overTrump says not considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk missiles, could put US troops (Nigeria)Oil futures are open for trade, price pops after OPEC paused output hikes for Q1 2026UBS: U.S./China talks modestly positive, AI demand underpinning market ralliesBarclays expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates this weekAustralia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing October 2025, final: 49.7 (51.4 in September)New Zealand Building Permits, September 2025: +7.2% m/m (prior +6.1%)ICYMI – Fed’s Waller still lobbying for Fed Chair – said he wants a December rate cutJPY, JGB, Nikkei, UST traders note – it’s a market holiday in Japan todayHeads up – US and Canada switched off daylight saving over the weekendRBNZ: Large banks well placed to withstand solvency, liquidity impact of severe scenarioMonday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 03 November 2025OPEC+ agrees to raise output by 137K bpd, as expectedNewsquawk Week Ahead: US ISM PMIs, ADP, Supreme Court Tariff Hearing, RBA, BoE, OPEC-8
Major FX traded in tight ranges as Asia opened the week quietly, with Japan on holiday and traders eyeing the RBA meeting and U.S. data ahead.
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It was a limited-range session for major FX to open the new week. Japanese markets were closed for the Culture Day holiday.
Gold initially slipped to around US$3,965 in early trade following news that China had scrapped its long-standing gold tax incentive, but prices later rebounded above US$4,010 as traders assessed the potential demand impact and broader market reaction.
Oil opened strongly in Sunday evening (US time) Globex, supported by weekend news from OPEC, which agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, the same pace as last month and widely expected by the market. However, in a sign of concern over possible (northern) winter oversupply, the group agreed to pause hikes for Q1 2026, a move that was not expected.
There were several notable news and data items.
From late Friday, Fed Governor Waller said the central bank should cut rates again in December, citing labour-market weakness and easing inflation despite the shutdown’s “data fog.” He also signalled he’d accept a nomination to be the next Fed Chair.
Trump ruled out sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, hinted at “secret plans” for Venezuela, and said U.S. troops “could be” deployed in Nigeria. He also confirmed regular meetings with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and vowed not to share the firm’s Blackwell AI chips abroad.
Australia’s latest data painted a mixed picture ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting. The Melbourne Institute’s October CPI rose 3.1% y/y, edging higher from September’s 3.0% and keeping inflation just above the RBA’s 2–3% target band, a reminder that price pressures remain sticky. Household spending gained only 0.2% m/m, short of expectations and showing a patchy recovery driven by essentials, while building approvals jumped 12% and ANZ job ads fell 2.2%, marking a fourth straight decline. Together, the figures suggest a still-fragile economy with tentative consumer demand, softening labour momentum, and inflation that may keep the RBA cautious on further rate cuts. The Bank is widely expected to leave its cash rate unchanged on Tuesday.
South Korea’s Manufacturing PMI for October slumped to a contractionary 49.4, from 50.7 in September.
In China, factory growth slowed in October, with the private PMI easing to 50.6 from 51.2 as better domestic demand was offset by softer international orders and rising tariff uncertainty. Manufacturers faced ongoing margin pressures and disinflationary trends, while sentiment turned more cautious with growing pessimism over the export outlook. Beijing is expected to maintain targeted policy support to steady growth into year-end.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.