General business activity -5.0 vs -8.7 priorOutput +5.2 vs +5.2 priorNew orders -1.7 vs -2.6 priorPrices paid +33.4 vs +43.4 priorEmployment +2.0 vs -3.4 prior
The comments in the report are usually worth a read:
Beverage and tobacco product manufacturingOverall uncertainty about the strength of the economy is our
largest concern. We believe the risk of a recession has increased,
although it is hard to quantify. Lower economic opportunities,
especially for younger people, is putting downward pressure on our
future sales.Computer and electronic product manufacturingWe are considering closing our company at the end of the year
and filing for bankruptcy. We have had a huge drop in sales, and I think
it’s due to the loss of government funding. I don’t think I can recover
the company from it.Fabricated metal product manufacturingOur sales outlook is slightly down for 2026.Customers are delaying projects to 2026, and requests for quotes have decreased.Our customers want to buy, but they lack cash on hand. Multiple
competitor closures are funneling demand, but our customers lack
liquidity to fund required deposits and interim payments.Furniture and related product manufacturingThere’s a slowdown of commercial construction bid requests.Machinery manufacturingSales have been strong and steady over the past few months. We hope this trend continues.The free market is prevailing despite the central planners’ well-intentioned but misguided tariff policies.Up and down, back and forth. We are thankful for the work, but the waves continue.We expect some gain as well as some loss going forward in 2026
and through the remainder of the current year. We do believe the good
will outweigh the bad overall. The DFW area continues to thrive, Texas
remains a good place to do business, and the U.S. remains favorable for
business as opposed to many world markets. We’re thankful we are where
we are─geographically and economically.Miscellaneous manufacturingTariffs. We manufacture in the U.S., but input materials come
from China. We don’t have $600 million to get relief from tariffs like
some companies do.Paper manufacturingBusiness is steady at very slow; no uptick in sight at this time.Primary metal manufacturingWe suspect other countries, including Mexico, Vietnam and
Cambodia are cheating and not paying full Section 232 tariffs on
aluminum-extruded products coming into the U.S. This has been reported
to the Commerce Department. They are producing two invoices, one for the
raw aluminum and another for the other portions of their prices
resulting in not paying the full Section 232. If this is allowed to
continue our industry will lose jobs and shutter equipment. Most of the
foreign countries are subsidizing exports to the U.S. to the detriment
of our industry.Printing and related support activitiesWe have gotten very slow and we worry about the general state
of our industry. We have a few large jobs that are keeping people busy
in the plant, but soon if things don’t change there will need to be some
significant reduction in hours worked on the plant floor. There is just
not much going on right now, and we believe it’s all tied to the chaos
and uncertainty coming from Washington. We are hearing about significant
price increases on materials coming soon due to the effect of tariffs.Tariff costs (a tax) are having an impact of slowing down
economic activity in all sectors. It’s all to do with economic
uncertainty.Textile product millsWe are very unsure of how the holiday season will play out.
Input prices continue to increase as duties and tariffs take effect and
remain in place. We are unsure of demand, and we will also need to
increase our prices due to rising costs.Transportation equipment manufacturingThe interest rate reduction is positive. There’s a need to
improve the government shutdown and trade turmoil, and the outlook would
be very promising.Continued volatility with import tariffs and interest rates
continue to stifle the trucking market. Trucking companies continue to
struggle, and there is a regular cadence of bankruptcies being reported.Business is up, yet we are also affected by the government shutdown in our ability to work with regulators to approve next steps
Last week I wrote about extensive fraud in US imports, which is the real reason that tariffs aren’t causing inflation.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.