Rate cuts by year-end
Fed: 55 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 7 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoE: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoC: 27 bps (53% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
RBA: 31 bps (83% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 38 bps (83% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
SNB: 5 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
BoJ: 15 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
We’ve seen some slightly hawkish repricing for the ECB and the BoE, and a bit more dovish repricing for the BoC due to the weak Canadian GDP report on Friday.
The focus this week will be of course on the US labour market data with the ADP on Thursday and NFP on Friday being the biggest risk events. Interest rates expectations will be greatly influenced by those reports.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.