Prior month -0.7% revised to -0.8%Leading index -1.0% versus -0.9% estimate38 or 41 months have been negative.The -1.0% is the loweest since March 2023
Other details from the Census department:
LEI (Leading Economic Index):
Fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016=100)
March decline revised to -0.8% (from -0.7%)
Down 2.0% over the last six months (same rate as previous 6 months)
Largest monthly drop since March 2023
Most components deteriorated, especially consumer expectations, building permits, and average workweek in manufacturing
Still not low enough to trigger a recession signal
Conference Board forecasts 1.6% GDP growth in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024
Tariff impacts expected to hit hardest in Q3 2025
CEI (Coincident Economic Index):
Rose by 0.1% in April 2025 to 114.8
Up 1.1% over past six months (vs. 0.9% prior)
All four components contributed, but industrial production was weakest
LAG (Lagging Economic Index):
Increased by 0.3% in April 2025 to 119.3
Reversed March’s 0.1% decline
Six-month growth rate: +0.8%, reversing the prior -0.8% trend
The components for the month show:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.