Moody’s downgrade will cut across economics, financial markets.Downgrade will have implications for cost of capital, could ripple through economy.Will have to wait and see about impact of downgrade on demand for US debt.The Fed will have to determine how the downgrade effects an outlook that is already in flux.It’s unclear if consumers today can take on the full cost of tariffs given the state of household balance sheets, recent inflation.We have to wait 3-6 months to see how uncertainty settles.Number of rate cuts this year depends on how things turn out, the details of the tariffs will matter.Leaning more towards only one cut this year because it will take time to understand tariffs.There’s a scenario where tariffs become less of a story over time.If the tariff transition is longer, it may impact consumer behavior.Treasury markets are functioning quite well.Inflation not moving to target as fast as anticipated.
Bostic is a hawk and he’s not a voting member in 2025. He’s been supporting just one rate cut this year.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.