Prior +8.8KUnemployment rate 6.9% vs 7.1% expectedPrior 7.0%Full-time employment +13.5k vs +57.7k priorPart-time employment +69.5k vs -48.8k priorParticipation rate 65.4% vs 65.3% priorAverage hourly wages +3.2% vs +3.5% prior
The unemployment rate tells the story in Canada as it’s risen steadily from 4.8% in July 2022. Excluding the pandemic, it was at the highest since 2016 but ticked lower in this report despite the rising participation rate.
USD/CAD was trading at 1.3689 ahead of this report and has taken the news of Trump’s tariffs with minimal disturbance, clearly betting that it’s a bluff. On these headlines, USD/CAD fell to 1.3673 and has now continued to 1.3652 to erase the Trump tariff move.
As for the Bank of Canada, this is going to move them more-firmly to the sidelines. The market is now pricing in just 23 bps in easing this year.
Note that Canadian jobs data is fairly volatile so it’s tough to draw the conclusion that the economy is actually improving. But jobs gains were broad regionally and led by wholesale/retail trade up 34K and healthcare up 17K. Demographically, core-aged men were up 62K.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.