Headlines:
US House clears procedural rule vote, paves the way for final bill vote laterWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?China says it is assessing its position with regards to US-Vietnam trade dealUS Bessent: I am meeting with the EU negotiator todayUS Bessent: 2-year Treasuries are telling you overnight rate too highUK gilts steady back after yesterday’s selloffBOJ’s Takata: Can’t say how long we could wait before raising rates againBOJ’s Takata: Hard to predict exactly when price target can be achievedECB accounts note few members saw a case for keeping interest rates at current levelsSwitzerland June CPI +0.1% vs -0.1% y/y expectedEurozone June final services PMI 50.5 vs 50.0 prelimUK June final services PMI 52.8 vs 51.3 prelimJapan’s largest union group Rengo sees final average wage hike of 5.25% this fiscal yearReminder: US markets to close early today before the long weekend
Markets:
GBP leads, NZD lags on the dayEuropean equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.26%Gold down 0.4% to $3,345.87WTI crude down 0.2% to $67.31Bitcoin up 0.5% to $109,767
It was mostly sideways action in European trading today as market players are all gearing up towards the US non-farm payrolls data later. That’s the main event as we look to close out the week, with it being a long weekend in the US tomorrow.
The dollar is trading little changed with not much appetite whatsoever, as traders wait on the jobs data to provide the impetus for the next move. EUR/USD is keeping just under 1.1800 with a very large set of option expiries seen at the figure level today. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is steadying back around 1.3650-60 levels as the gilts market also rebounds back a little after UK prime minister Starmer offered his backing to finance minister Reeves and the country’s fiscal path.
There wasn’t too much action all around with USD/JPY also little changed at 143.85 and USD/CAD flat at 1.3580 on the day.
In the equities space, things were quiet as well with US futures keeping little changed. European stocks tried to catch some early momentum but failed to hang on that as they are keeping more tentative and tepid now.
In political news though, the US House managed to clear the procedural rule vote after nearly six hours. Johnson and Trump are on the cusp of pulling it off with the vote for the bill itself set for the early morning.
But for markets, it’s all about the US jobs report next before the long weekend kicks in.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.