I posted last week on
4 oil price forecasts, bleak scenario is up to US$130/bbl
Many of these warned of what could play out in the case of escalation. Over the weekend we did incrementally escalate:
BREAKING: U.S. Successfully Struck Iran Nuclear SitesWhat’s Next after Iran Strikes?Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 16 June 2025 – USD up after Trump bombs IranUS equity index futures have opened the week’s trade with a small gap lower
Since then:
Globex gaps getting filled, some more than others – oil triple top break testingTrump’s orders strike: Ayatollah gave Trump the middle finger … that came with a priceThere is basically zero chance Iran will be able to close the Strait of HormuzANZ warn on Hormuz disruption, oil could rise to US$95 / bbl
Anyway, back to that “4 oil price forecasts” post, in brief:
Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps 3.3 million bpd. Citi estimates that a 3 million bpd disruption over several months could lift prices to $90.J.P. Morgan warned that if the conflict widened to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil could surge to $120–130.Goldman Sachs sees a $10/bbl geopolitical risk premium currently in pricesBarclays sees $85 oil if Iranian exports are halved, and above $100 in a worst-case regional war
Brent update, still shy of filling the gap. The price is sitting on the break up from a triple top. Improtant level!
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.