Rate cuts by year-end
Fed: 47 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 19 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoE: 48 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
BoC: 24 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
RBA: 74 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 27 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
SNB: 45 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
*for the SNB, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
Rate hikes by year-end
BoJ: 17 bps (100% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
The surge in oil prices saw a bit of a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. The change is negligible and with the expected de-escalation, we should see a pullback in oil prices.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.