EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, the main highlight is the Bank of England rate decision. The BoE is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps to 4.00%, marking the first hike in the current tightening cycle. Stronger-than-expected economic activity, improving labour-market conditions and persistent inflation pressures have weakened the case for keeping rates unchanged.
The main focus will be on the MPC vote split and the guidance on future policy decisions. The consensus expects a 7-2 vote in favour of a 25 bps hike. Markets will also look for clues on whether further tightening is likely as the risk of energy-driven inflation becoming embedded in wages and prices remains a concern. However, the BoE is likely to avoid committing to a predetermined tightening path, keeping future decisions data-dependent.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 196K vs 194K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1710K vs 1701K prior. The data is unlikely to be market-moving, though, since everyone knows that the US labour market remains resilient. The US ADP report yesterday also confirmed this view as the data surprised to the upside coming in at 86K vs 65K expected.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
08:00 GMT/03:00 ET – ECB’s Moulin (neutral – voter)08:05 GMT/03:05 ET – ECB’s Schnabel (hawkish – voter)12:40 GMT/07:40 ET – SNB Chairman Schlegel (neutral – voter)13:50 GMT/08:50 ET – Fed’s Hammack (hawkish – voter)14:10 GMT/09:10 ET – Fed’s Barkin (neutral – non voter)16:00 GMT/11:00 ET – ECB President Lagarde (neutral – voter)17:45 GMT/12:45 ET – ECB’s Nagel (hawkish – voter)18:00 GMT/13:00 ET – ECB President Lagarde (neutral – voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.